Weather Blog Post
Last Updated: Jul 10, 2025 6:09 AM
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?️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
July 10th through July 16th
Current risk: None.
Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.
Comment: No tornado threats.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is in the forecast into next week.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. A few storms over the next seven days could produce strong and gusty winds. A few severe thunderstorm warnings are possible. A stronger cold front is likely late next week. That could increase the risk of severe storms. I will monitor trends.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED. Slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Scattered low 90s are likely this week into next week.
6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. A chance of 98 to 104-degree heat index readings on Friday and Saturday.
8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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I will be on a family vacation this coming Sunday into the following weekend. I won't be able to update the video or blog. If severe weather is a concern, I will send out app alerts to give you a heads-up about the possibility of inclement weather.
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Forecast discussion.
- No significant changes to the going forecast.
- Warm and humid this week. Typical for July.
- Unsettled weather with daily chances of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Chances will be lowest today and tomorrow. Many areas will remain dry through Friday afternoon.
- July thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds. A low risk of a severe thunderstorm warning.
- Rainfall totals over the next seven days are expected to vary significantly. Ranging from less than 0.50" to over 3.00". Typical summer thunderstorms. Gully washers in some areas.
- The heaviest storms could briefly flood ditches, roads, and streams. Avoid flooded roadways.
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NOTE: I will be off from work from next Sunday to the following Sunday. I will be on a family trip. I won't update the video or blog. I will send out a few updates via the app, especially if active weather develops.
A decent summer day ahead of us. Patchy morning fog. Hot. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms.
The risk of storms today and tomorrow is expected to be lower than in recent days. Rain probabilities will range from 10% to 25%.
Keep in mind that a 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain. It simply means that most locations will remain dry. A few places will receive a downpour.
Some of these summer thunderstorms will produce one to three inches of rain per thirty minutes, dime-sized hail, and 60 mph wind gusts. I can't rule out a few severe thunderstorm warnings this week, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Typical for July.
Daily highs today through the first half of next week are expected to be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. On most days, the heat index values will range from 92 to 98. It will be uncomfortable due to the high humidity.
The heat index values may be a bit higher on Friday and Saturday. It appears that readings of 98 to 104 degrees will be possible.
Thunderstorm chances will continue into next week. Again, it won't rain every day everywhere. There will, however, be a few storms on radar each day.
Some of the data indicates a strong cold front towards the middle or end of next week. If true, that would bring nicer temperatures and lower humidity levels.
The GFS shows below-average temperatures next Thursday through Saturday. Fingers crossed. That would be nice.
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Let me show you the current rain probabilities. Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms during the summer months usually means someone will have a gullywasher, but many areas will remain dry. It does not mean that it won't rain on your picnic.
Take the general idea from these numbers.
These numbers may vary a bit in the daily video. I gave the average chance area-wide on the video update.
Thursday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)
Thursday night 7 PM to 7 AM rain probabilities (%)
Friday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)
Friday 7 PM to 7 AM rain probabilities (%)
Saturday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)
Saturday 7 PM to 7 AM rain probabilities (%)
Sunday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)
Sunday 7 PM to 7 AM rain probabilities (%)
Monday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)
Monday 7 PM to 7 AM rain probabilities (%)
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K model
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GFS model..
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00" to 1.25"
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00" to 1.25"
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
?️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it's a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link - Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today's weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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